### The 1944 US Presidential Election was fraudulent

OK, it wasn't really, but I thought I'd run the Scacco/Beber analysis on that election and see what it comes up with. Guess what.

If you look at the non-adjacent, non-repeated digits in the last two places in the votes counts by state for Roosevelt and Dewey you discover that 59.38% of the votes are non-adjacent, non-repeated. If the numbers were truly random you'd expect 70%. That's way worse than the 62.07% in the Iranian election.

If you then do the old Z-Test you get a Z value of -2.49 with a p-value of 0.013. That's well below the 0.05 critical value so you can reject the null hypothesis. The final digits are not random.

Is this fraud?

Is there any suggestion that the state-level numbers in the 1944 US election were invented by people?

If not, how can anyone claim that this test indicates fraud in the Iranian election?

Now run the other bit of their test looking at the frequencies of the last digit. You get 'too many' 7s (expected 10%, got 16%) and 'too few' 1s (expected 10%, got 5%).

I'm telling you, man, what's the chance of that happening, and the non-adjacent, non-repeating digits thing? (It's about 0.17% according to simulation) I mean, come on, that's gotta be fraud.

Oh, wait, it's not.

If you look at the non-adjacent, non-repeated digits in the last two places in the votes counts by state for Roosevelt and Dewey you discover that 59.38% of the votes are non-adjacent, non-repeated. If the numbers were truly random you'd expect 70%. That's way worse than the 62.07% in the Iranian election.

If you then do the old Z-Test you get a Z value of -2.49 with a p-value of 0.013. That's well below the 0.05 critical value so you can reject the null hypothesis. The final digits are not random.

Is this fraud?

Is there any suggestion that the state-level numbers in the 1944 US election were invented by people?

If not, how can anyone claim that this test indicates fraud in the Iranian election?

Now run the other bit of their test looking at the frequencies of the last digit. You get 'too many' 7s (expected 10%, got 16%) and 'too few' 1s (expected 10%, got 5%).

I'm telling you, man, what's the chance of that happening, and the non-adjacent, non-repeating digits thing? (It's about 0.17% according to simulation) I mean, come on, that's gotta be fraud.

Oh, wait, it's not.

Labels: rants and raves

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